Thinking The Counterfactual Thinking
Spending my leisure time in quarantine at home, I’ve been engaging in many metacognitive thinking such as counterfactual thinking. I was recalling the past experiences, the good and the bad. I think that I overthink too much. Remembering past experiences give me some nostalgic feelings and sometimes left me doubting my decision I’ve made at those times.
Good memories give you a sense of relief, content, and sometimes hope. It makes life feel better thinking that I have gone through beautiful moments in life. It makes life a bit lively and gives you strength and courage. They were priceless. They make you feel like you belong to certain people and certain temporality.
But, unpleasant memories (I don’t want to call it bad for reasons) left me thinking more. It left me engaged in counterfactual thinking. If you are not familiar with counterfactual thinking, this concept epitomized by the phrase “What if”, or “If only I had”, or “what might have been”. A concept you may familiar with is regret. Counterfactual thinking proposes alternatives to past events, actions, or states that have already occurred. Counterfactual thinking as it states “counter to the facts”. To simplify, many unpleasant memories lead me to overthink and create an “alternate version” contrary to what happened.
Counterfactual thinking may seem maladaptive and involved biased judgment. Sometimes this thinking only makes my self-esteem worse by blaming my incompetencies. “If only I had studied harder, maybe my GPA is higher”, when I graduated. “If I had accepted on the scholarship program, maybe it would be better”, when I failed art-and-culture round in my scholarship selection. I feel bad because of these unattained goals or expected outcomes.
One night, when I was replaying all the scenes from the past and making what-if scenarios in my mind, I began questioning my own rumination. “What if my alternate scenario had happened then? Would I feel better or satisfied? Am I sure that was what I need? Am I sure if this ‘alternate scenario’ would change the consequent event significantly? What if the alternatives wouldn’t work the way I thought?”
We succumb to dwell on the rumination and regret as if our alternate scenario would change our lives differently. We trapped by thinking model “if A didn’t work, maybe B would do”, but it’s just a possibility, and not guaranteed. For example “If I had enrolled in music class, I would have passed the cultural phase selection in that scholarship program”, but it just a possibility. It doesn’t guarantee that if you take this music class, you definitely will pass that round.
We take aside that our decision at those times is the result of our consideration, condition — both internal and external, and capacity. And sometimes we failed to realize that so many external factors contribute to the outcome. Maybe it’s not your lucky day. Or maybe it wasn’t meant to be for you.
Have I mentioned that counterfactual thinking can be beneficial? If I haven’t, here we go. Counterfactual thinking can be divided into two types based on their polar. Better alternative is called upward counterfactuals; worse alternative is called downward counterfactuals. When upward counterfactuals focus on personal choice, the resulting emotion is termed regret, which I have mentioned above. And downward counterfactual give you worse than actually happened. For example “If I hadn’t worn helmet, probably I might get worse injury in that accident”.
Counterfactual thinking also serves as a behavior regulation. When we realized our goal or need hasn’t met, we specify what one might have been done to have achieved that goal. To simplify, we evaluate what can we learn from our mistakes. If counterfactual thinking play function as problem-solving, then counterfactual thinking should be activated by problem (what had gone wrong), and it should have the effect of evoking behavior that correct those problems. This model of thinking best explained by figure below.
So, let’s make our ‘overthinking’ a tool for us to grow, to better than our past-selves. Let’s not make these thoughts just weighing your head and make you feel worse but to reflect on our mistake and our action.
